Two Apple analysts examining the same supply chain data have reached very different conclusions about what they mean for iPhone XR sales.
Supply chain analyst Cowan said that although it sees some issues in display panel shipments, the firm believes that production indicates that iPhone XR sales will account for fully half of all iPhones sold …
Philip Elmer-DeWitt says the firm has cited six different factors in support of this. With the display one of the key differentiators of the iPhone XR, this provides this biggest clue into iPhone XR sales.
While there have been reports of some difficulties in LCD manufacturing, Cowan sees no downturn in overall volume.
Rosenblatt, however, takes a far more pessimistic view, suggesting that not only do iPhone XR sales represent less than half of all iPhones sold, they don’t even match iPhone XS/Max sales.
Apple reportedly began ramping up production before the new model even went on sale, with Ming-Chi Kuo increasing his own iPhone XR sales projections. He later stated that pre-order demand pointed to the XR doing better than the iPhone 8/Plus did last year.
We are trimming our iPhone Production and shipments by 6 million units for Q4. We previously modeled new iPhone production of 90-95 million units and shipments of 80 -85 million units. We are revising our estimates to show new iPhone production of 88 million units and shipments of 76-77 million units for the second half of this year.
Apple is due to report its fiscal Q4 earnings on Thursday, but these will provide clues to iPhone XS/Max sales only, as iPhone XR sales fall into the following quarter.
